War in Europe?

War in Europe?

The US stock markets are closed today and as the FTSE can’t make decisions – like whether Putin is going to invade Ukraine – on its own, I decided to do a little research on this particular subject.

Long story short – he met with his security council this afternoon and is going to decide whether to recognise Luhansk and Donetsk as independent of Ukraine today.

How do I know this? Because I stumbled across the live televised session of the security council this afternoon on RT news (I like to do my research/get my propaganda from all mainstream outlets😁)

Now then, what I noted from this session was:

1) He let everyone speak their mind – despite it being a bit like the emperor holding court – and the speeches did appear genuine;

2) He was at pains to correct one gentleman who seemed to overstep himself in his zeal – to point out that the proposed action was to go no further than to recognise the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk.

3) This situation is a lot more complex than the Western media would have you believe.

Now in my simple mind there are elements of the historic problems of Southern and Northern Ireland.

The slavic analogues are as follows:

1) The starvation of a large element of one ethnic group by another in the 1930s
2) A large remaining minority (in this case Russians – Luhansk and Donetsk are predominantly Russian speaking) in Ukrainian territory – Luhansk and Donetsk People’s republics are located in the historical region of Donbas, which was added to Ukraine in 1922

3) The complete failure to integrate the two slavic populations under one country’s banner ie., Ukraine.

So, despite the news headlines this is not a simple matter of Russia invading Ukraine!

But if this gets out of hand, I think Boris – who probably reads a bit more than Lis Truss –  is right to say that the bloodshed will be significant.

So, how is this going to effect the markets?

Well, I think it’s largely priced in.

War is ultimately a profitable business.

We will see..

NB. Two other things struck me:

1) The potential death toll could equal that bought about by covid

2) The green agenda is going to be set back significantly by: burning all that diesel to move heavy artillery around; potential damage to gas pipeline infrastucture and eventually the energy consumption required for for rebulding.