Systemic risk 〽️

Systemic risk 〽️

About four years ago I started trading. That’s not to say I haven’t dabbled in stocks and shares (and latterly crypto$) all my life – I have.

What was different four years ago is that I decided to stop dabbling; I set myself a weekly profit target, got a proper subscription to, some live data feeds, and started learning more.

If you’re reading this, then you may be aware of my journey from a believer to a sceptic regarding the question “does society have my best interests in mind”; kicked off by my journey from a fully vaccinated individual to an anti-vaxxer (as defined by other people; as I’m still helping vaccine research and am currently a top 1k ranked team contributing distributed processing power to

I could be mining bitcoin instead. But I’m not.😇

Yesterday, I had a little epiphany.

This is it and it’s really obvious in hindsight.

From an investing perspective, the answer to whether SARS-CoV-2 vaccines work or not is immaterial.

What is important, as it represents a real, financial risk (I know everyone is talking about the markets melt down last week, inflation and central bank tightening – which is raising interest rates and contracting money supply) …

… is any significant popular unrest arising from a breakdown in the current vaccine narrative.

This is a list of factors that could cause another Lehman Brothers moment and a crash like the 2008 financial crisis. I have added “vaccine narrative breakdown” to it.

It is not an exhaustive list yet; and I will add to it as things arise.

For example, yesterday I did not know how severe the drought in the USA is, or that the USA is responsible for 1/6th of global grain output.

So, from recent data analysis (not by me I might add) some stuff investors ought to know about (and the things implied/effected by them):

  • US drought leading to food shortages and huge population displacements (real estate in Las Vegas);
  • central banking systemic riskyen is a forerunner to bring the house down (banking/financial stocks and markets);
  • oil/energy/interest rate mismanagement (economic hardship and unrest);
  • hugely incompetent policy makers, administrations and politicians (eg US shale oil overproduction arising from the search for yield driven by zero Fed interest rates) ;
  • a hugely divided society;
  • the mainstream media believing that social media is a threat to democracy and the slow creep of authoritarianism; and
  • popular unrest arising through vaccine narrative breakdown ie., what if the conspiracists are right in asserting that vaccines either don’t work or actually do more harm and people start to realise …

There we go. I’m not yet growing my own food; but I’m starting to think about it. 🤔

I’ve got to go and prepare for a “longest day, longest bike ride” now. If I get some good pictures I will probably post them.

Have a great weekend 😁🤪.

PS. You’ll be dead before you know it so go out, live a little and enjoy yourself.

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